NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Divisional Round Saturday January 18th

By - Finn January 19, 2025 Comments (0) 9 Mins Read

Sep 15, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) warms up before the game against the Chicago Bears at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It should be a great day for football fans with the divisional round of the playoffs getting underway today. But it could be an even better one if you like to bet and put your money down on the right market. Of course, the question that needs answering: which ones are the right ones?

That is a question every bettor has to answer on their own. However, if you aren’t sure where to start, check out our best NFL bets for Saturday, Jan. 18.

AFC Divisional Playoffs: Texans vs. Chiefs

Texans ML at +400 (via Caesars)

As could be expected, the public has been betting heavily on the Chiefs to win this game outright. At DraftKings, 79% of moneyline tickets and 86% of the handle is on Kansas City to win outright. At -455, the payout is not huge, but a win is a win is a win. So, why roll the dice on the Texans?

Value.

When the Texans bring their ‘A’ game, they are tough to beat. The offense put up 32 points on the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL last weekend. The defense made Justin Herbert look more like a quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, not the gunslinger that he is.

Do I think the Texans will win? Honestly—probably not. But I also don’t think the Texans will lose by more than a touchdown, so consider taking the Texans and the points. However, with a one-score game, all it takes is one or two plays to swing in the other direction, and you have a different outcome.

Houston’s defense could force a mistake or two from a Chiefs offense that is not the same explosive monster as it has been in recent years.

Stake SportsBook Bonus

$100,000 Daily Race

For help with a gambling problem, call or text the NCPG – (1-800-522-4700)

Play now

Joe Mixon, OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards at -106 (via Caesars)

OVER 15.5 Rushing Attempts at -129 (Caesars)

If Houston is going to have a chance, they’ll need to establish the run game. The Chiefs’ defense has been holding teams to right around 100 yards, and it held Mixon to 57 a few weeks ago. But they’ve allowed teams to run for an average of 148 yards over the last three.

The Texans only handed him the ball 14 times in that earlier game. As important as establishing the run is for this game, he’ll go OVER 15.5 carries in the third quarter.

Stake SportsBook Bonus

$100,000 Daily Race

For help with a gambling problem, call or text the NCPG – (1-800-522-4700)

Play now

NFC Divisional Playoffs: Commanders vs. Lions

Prior to the Week 18 game between the Vikings and Lions, I was certain the Lions’ injury-riddled defense wouldn’t stand a chance against the Minnesota offense—and I was wrong. This week, I am confident the Lions will score some points, but I am not as confident the Commanders can reciprocate.

It’s possible that Jayden Daniels will perform well and have a good game. But I am not willing to bet on that. I’m also not willing to say the Lions can cover a 9.5-point spread.

Take the UNDER 55.5 Points at -110 (via DraftKings)

Stake SportsBook Bonus

$100,000 Daily Race

For help with a gambling problem, call or text the NCPG – (1-800-522-4700)

Play now

Jayden Daniels OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards at -120 (via BetMGM)

OVER 9.5 Rushing Attempts at -155 (via BetMGM)

Daniels is a significant part of the run game for the Commanders. He’s been averaging over 50 per game this season, and the Lions’ defense has been nice to running quarterbacks, giving up 454 rushing yards to QBs (fourth highest).

Establishing the run will be vital to the Commanders getting the offense up and running, and Daniels has been a great weapon to that extent. It will not be easy to run on the Lions, but Daniels will get the job done.