When the checkered flag flies at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday afternoon, the NASCAR Cup Series will crown its 2024 champion. Here’s how the Championship 4 drivers — Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and William Byron — stack up against each other:

Ryan Blaney:

The defending champion will try to take home the title for the second year in a row. Blaney’s 2024 season has been a carbon copy of his 2023 campaign: A solid regular season followed by a dominant playoff run. Last year, Blaney finished second at Homestead-Miami, won at Martinsville and went on to win the championship at Phoenix. This year, he finished second at Homestead-Miami, won at Martinsville and has a shot at his second trophy.

Keys to Victory

If there’s any team in the Championship 4 that is most likely to bring a perfect car to Phoenix, it’s the No. 12 team. Blaney’s wins so far in 2024 have come in races when he had a clear-cut top-five car from the beginning, which could be necessary at a track like Phoenix where passing is more difficult than usual. If not for a matter of inches at Atlanta and a lap of fuel in St. Louis, Blaney could be sitting on a five-win season.

History in the desert

Here’s a stat that should leave the other championship contenders shaking in their boots: Blaney hasn’t finished worse than fourth at Phoenix since March of 2021, including runner-up finishes in the last two Phoenix fall races. In the last six Phoenix races, Blaney has an average finish of 3.2. The only thing missing from his resume over those races? A win, which would automatically grant Blaney the championship on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick:

It has been a breakout year for Reddick, who propelled himself to the Championship 4 with a daring move in turns three and four at Homestead-Miami. That win is the shining diamond in a playoff run that’s been mostly dark for Reddick, but he’s done enough to make this quartet. Now comes a track type that 23XI Racing still seems to be behind at — a short, flat oval that was the death knell for Reddick’s 2023 campaign.

Keys to victory

One of 23XI’s weak points as an organization has been its pit crews. In 2023, Reddick appeared to be in contention for the win at Michigan — until a loose wheel forced him to come back down pit road. That kind of mistake can’t happen on Sunday, where fast pit stops could be the difference in winning the championship or finishing last among the title contenders.

History in the desert

Unlike Blaney, Reddick has been rather inconsistent at Phoenix. He has three top-10 finishes in five Next-Gen starts at the track, but finished 23rd and 22nd, respectively, in the other two races. The good news? Reddick finished 10th at Phoenix in March in a race where Toyota whipped the field. Reddick led 68 laps in that race, and as the sole Toyota in the Championship 4, he should feel good about his chances.

Joey Logano:

If you had told fans that Logano would be in the Championship 4 back in June, they would pass the comment off without a second thought. However, the two-time champion finds himself 312 laps away from winning a third title after victories at Nashville (June 30) and Las Vegas (Oct. 20) fueled another Cinderella playoff run. Logano hasn’t had much speed this year, but he did have two extra weeks to prepare for the championship race, just as he did in 2022 when he dominated the finale.

Keys to victory

Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe have been no stranger to gutsy strategy calls this year. Without them, the No. 22 team might not even be in the playoffs, much less the Championship 4. The decision by Wolfe to leave Logano out on fumes at both Nashville and Las Vegas are the sole reason why he won those races, and if Logano finds himself in a hole on Sunday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another crazy strategy be employed by Team Penske.

History in the desert

Logano has 16 top-10 finishes and three wins in 31 starts at Phoenix, but hasn’t run very well at the one-mile track as of late. Finishes of 11th, 18th and 34th in his last three Phoenix starts don’t inspire much confidence, but a dazzling performance in 2022 should. With the extra time to prepare that he also had this year, Logano led 187 laps in the 2022 finale en route to the race win and the title. Don’t be shocked if Logano and Wolfe pull another rabbit out of the hat on Sunday.

William Byron:

Byron and Hendrick Motorsports would like to forget the controversy that got them into the Championship 4 in the first place. Unfortunately, the race manipulation scandal that rocked the NASCAR world Sunday takes away from what has undoubtedly been a great season for Byron as he establishes himself as one of NASCAR’s elite. He hasn’t won since April 7 at Martinsville, but he’s in the Championship 4 for the second year in a row with the best team in NASCAR backing him.

Keys to victory

At Daytona and Martinsville, Byron was able to ward off the field on late-race restarts in order to win. Like Blaney, the No. 24 team could easily bring an unstoppable car to Phoenix. However, if the championship is decided on a late-race restart, Byron could be the favorite. His wins at Texas, Las Vegas and Phoenix in 2023 were also decided on late-race restarts. If you need to pick a Championship 4 driver to shoot the middle or make a big late-race block, Byron is your man.

History in the desert

Phoenix was surprisingly a struggle for Byron in March, as he failed to lead any laps and finished 18th. In 2023, however, Byron won the spring race after leading 64 laps, and led 95 laps en route to a fourth-place finish in the championship race. With a year of Championship 4 experience under his belt, Byron will be a strong contender on Sunday, provided he’s not given a lemon like he was in the spring.

–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media