Even as relievers have taken on larger workloads and teams have begun building their pitching staffs backwards from the ninth inning, the Cy Young Award has remained the domain of the ace starter. 

Only one reliever has won the Cy Young since 1993, and Eric Gagne had to go 55-for-55 in save opportunities for the Los Angeles Dodgers in order to earn the NL hardware in 2003. A reliever hasn’t finished higher than third in the balloting since 2008, when the Los Angeles Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez racked up a record 62 saves on his way to placing third in the AL voting.

A top-3 finish is likely for at least one reliever this season, but once again, a pair of dominant starting pitchers — one just beginning his run as an ace and another mounting a stunning late-career revival that has catapulted him back into the Hall of Fame conversation — will be accepting hugs and high fives from family members and friends on MLB Network in late November. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

TARIK SKUBAL (18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts) appeared as if he’d win the award for most of the summer because the sheer volume of his numbers — he’s on pace to win the AL Triple Crown — would dwarf the idea he’d dominated for a second-division team. But Skubal has been at his best in his last nine starts, a span in which he’s gone 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA as the Tigers have gone 30-14 to close in on their first playoff berth since 2014.

Before Skubal’s finishing kick, Guardians closer EMMANUEL CLASE (4-2, 0.62 ERA, 46 saves) had a terrific Cy Young case as the bullpen anchor for a division winner that’s won 45 games by two runs or fewer. Clase has 4.4 in WAR, per Baseball-Reference, a figure exceeded only by Jonathan Papelbon (5.0 WAR in 2006) among closers this century. 

Despite a pair of seven-game losing streaks in the last four weeks, the Royals are likely bound for the postseason for the first time since 2015 thanks to SETH LUGO (16-9, 3.03 ERA, 178 strikeouts) and COLE RAGANS (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 223 strikeouts). The duo rank second and third behind Skubal in WAR among AL pitchers and are among the top 10 in ERA and innings pitched.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

CHRIS SALE (18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts) received AL Cy Young votes and made the All-Star team every year from 2012 through 2018, but this is as much the most surprising Cy Young emergence in memory as it is a lifetime achievement award. Sale is likely going to win the NL Triple Crown for the Braves at age 35 while throwing more innings than he did while battling a litany of injuries in the previous four seasons combined (151). The long-awaited addition of a Cy Young to his trophy case comes as Sale surges past 50.0 in career WAR, behind only the Hall of Fame-bound trio of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, all of whom are in the twilight of their careers. Sale has a much better chance of joining them in Cooperstown than he did a year ago at this time.

ZACK WHEELER (16-7, 2.56 ERA, 213 strikeouts) has a chance to finish second to Sale in all three Triple Crown categories, which makes this a more warranted second-place Cy Young finish for Wheeler than in 2021, when he lost the Cy Young because he had an ERA a third of a run higher than Corbin Burnes in 46 1/3 more innings.

The race for third place will be oddly compelling. Do voters reward the immediate brilliance of Pirates rookie PAUL SKENES (11-3, 1.99 ERA, 167 strikeouts), who ranks behind only Sale in WAR despite throwing just 122 innings? Does fellow rookie SHOTA IMANAGA (15-3, 2.91 ERA, 174 strikeouts) get acknowledged for a seamless transition to the majors following eight years in Japan? Or do relievers TANNER SCOTT (9-5, 1.51 ERA, 22 saves) and RYAN HELSLEY (7-4, 2.09 ERA, 47 saves) get consideration following differently dominant seasons?